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IBDP · May 2026 Exam Prediction

IB Economics HL & SL

Complete Exam Prediction Guide

Paper 1, Paper 2 & Paper 3 (HL) — topic frequency, essay frameworks, prediction ratings & policy skills for May 2026. Switch between HL and SL instantly.

3
Papers Covered
45+
Topics Mapped
HL&SL
Both Levels
TZ2
India Focus
Predictions are based on historical past-paper frequency analysis (May 2021–2025) and are a study aid — not leaked or guaranteed exam content.
IB ECONOMICS — PAPER 1 ESSAY THEME FREQUENCY MATRIX | May 2022–2025 | All Units
Choose 1 of 3 questions. Part (a) explain [10 marks] + part (b) evaluate [15 marks] | SL: excludes HL extensions | HL: all topics including extensions
#UnitEssay Theme / TopicM22M23M24M25FreqPart (a) focusPart (b) evaluateMay 2026
UNIT 2: MICROECONOMICS (most tested in Paper 1)
1MicroMarket failure — externalities + evaluate government policy (SL & HL)4Draw externality diagram + explain welfare lossEvaluate: carbon tax vs cap-and-trade vs regulation⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
2MicroPED — explain concept + evaluate for indirect tax policy (SL & HL)3Explain PED formula + diagram showing elastic/inelasticEvaluate: should government tax inelastic goods?⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
3MicroMarket structures — monopoly vs perfect competition + evaluate welfare HL only3Draw monopoly diagram: profit, DWL, compare to PCEvaluate: is monopoly always harmful to society?⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
4MicroGovernment intervention — subsidies or price controls + evaluate (SL & HL)2Draw subsidy / price ceiling diagramEvaluate: do subsidies achieve their objectives?⭐⭐⭐⭐
5MicroBehavioural economics — bounded rationality + evaluate nudge theory HL only1Explain cognitive biases, anchoring, bounded rationalityEvaluate: nudge theory vs taxes/regulation⭐⭐⭐ SURPRISE HL
🔒 Units 3–5 + Paper 2 & 3 + May 2026 Predictions locked locked Macroeconomics · International Economics · Development Economics · Paper 2 & 3 matrices · Full prediction ratings Unlock Free → 🔒 Units 3–5 + Paper 2 & 3 + May 2026 Predictions locked Macroeconomics · International Economics · Development Economics · Paper 2 Data Response · Paper 3 Policy (HL) · Full prediction ratings Unlock Free → >UNIT 3: MACROECONOMICS
6MacroFiscal policy — explain expansionary policy + evaluate effectiveness (SL & HL)4Draw AD/AS shift from fiscal expansionEvaluate: crowding out, time lags, national debt, RWE⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
7MacroMonetary policy — explain central bank tools + evaluate limitations (SL & HL)3Explain interest rate mechanism + AD shift diagramEvaluate: time lags, liquidity trap, inflation targeting⭐⭐⭐⭐
8MacroUnemployment — explain types + evaluate supply-side policies (SL & HL)2Explain cyclical vs structural unemployment diagramsEvaluate: education/training, labour market reform, RWE⭐⭐⭐⭐
9MacroIncome inequality — Lorenz curve/Gini + evaluate policies (SL & HL)3Draw Lorenz curve, explain Gini coefficientEvaluate: progressive tax, transfers, minimum wage⭐⭐⭐⭐
10MacroPhillips curve — inflation-unemployment trade-off + evaluate HL only2Draw SRPC + LRPC at NAIRU, explain trade-offEvaluate: monetarist vs Keynesian view of NAIRU⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
UNIT 4: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
11GlobalFree trade vs protectionism — comparative advantage + evaluate (SL & HL)4Explain comparative advantage with numerical exampleEvaluate: infant industry, retaliation, employment vs efficiency⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
12GlobalExchange rates — explain depreciation + evaluate effect on trade (SL & HL)3Draw Forex diagram + explain depreciation mechanismEvaluate: M-L condition, J-curve, inflation risk (HL)⭐⭐⭐⭐
13GlobalDevelopment — barriers + evaluate effectiveness of aid (SL & HL)2Explain poverty trap / institutional barriers diagramEvaluate: tied vs untied aid, dependency, RWE⭐⭐⭐
14GlobalSustainable development — trade-off with growth + evaluate policy (SL & HL)2Explain SDGs and conflict with growth objectivesEvaluate: carbon pricing, international agreements, RWE⭐⭐⭐⭐
IB ECONOMICS — PAPER 2 TOPIC FREQUENCY MATRIX | May 2022–2025 | TZ1 & TZ2 ★India
Same structure SL & HL — HL rows show HL-extension content. ★India = TZ2. Green cells = appeared in TZ2. SL: HL-only rows greyed.
#UnitTopic / Sub-topicM22 TZ1M22 ★TZ2M23 TZ1M23 ★TZ2M24 TZ1M24 ★TZ2HL?May 2026
UNIT 2: MICROECONOMICS — appears in BOTH SL and HL Paper 2
2.1Demand & SupplyMarket equilibrium, shifts, price mechanism — diagramSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2.5ElasticityPED — calculate, interpret, link to tax incidenceSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2.7Govt — Indirect TaxTax diagram, consumer/producer burden, DWL — draw & calculateSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2.8ExternalitiesNegative/positive externalities — diagram + evaluate policySL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
2.11Market Structures (HL)Monopoly diagram — profit, DWL, allocative inefficiency HL onlyHL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
2.11bCosts & Revenues (HL)MC, ATC, AVC — draw, calculate, profit maximisation at MC=MR HL onlyHL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
UNIT 3: MACROECONOMICS — appears in BOTH SL and HL Paper 2
3.2AD/AS ModelAD/AS equilibrium, policy shifts — draw & explainSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
3.3InflationCPI calculation, demand-pull vs cost-push — calculate & diagramSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
3.4Inequality & PovertyLorenz curve — draw, calculate Gini, interpret changeSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
3.5Fiscal PolicyExpansionary/contractionary policy — AD/AS diagram + evaluateSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
3.5bFiscal Policy (HL)Keynesian multiplier — calculate, crowding out diagram HL onlyHL⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
3.3bPhillips Curve (HL)SRPC + LRPC at NAIRU — draw, explain trade-off HL onlyHL⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
UNIT 4: GLOBAL ECONOMY — appears in BOTH SL and HL Paper 2
4.2ProtectionismTariff diagram — consumer surplus loss, DWL, govt revenue — draw & evaluateSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
4.5Exchange RatesFloating exchange rate diagram — appreciation/depreciation + effects on economySL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
4.6Balance of PaymentsCurrent account — define components, calculate balance, identify causesSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐
4.1bComparative Advantage (HL)Calculate opportunity cost, identify CA, gains from trade — PPC diagram HL onlyHL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
4.6bMarshall-Lerner & J-curve (HL)Conditions for depreciation to improve CA + draw J-curve HL onlyHL⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
4.7Sustainable Dev.SDGs — define, trade-off with growth, evaluate policySL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐
4.10Development StrategiesAid, FDI, microfinance, trade — evaluate effectivenessSL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐
IB ECONOMICS HL — PAPER 3 POLICY SCENARIO FREQUENCY | May 2022–2025
Part (a) = quantitative + definitions + diagrams [20 marks each Q] | Part (b) = policy recommendation [10 marks each Q] | Both questions compulsory | Calculator allowed
#AreaPolicy Scenario / ContextM22M23M24M25May 2026
MACROECONOMIC POLICY SCENARIOS
M1MacroCountry facing rising inflation — recommend monetary or fiscal policy to reduce inflation⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
M2MacroHigh unemployment — recommend policy mix (demand-side + supply-side) with multiplier calculation⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
M3MacroRecession — evaluate expansionary fiscal policy, calculate multiplier effect on GDP⭐⭐⭐⭐
M4MacroHigh income inequality — calculate Gini from Lorenz table + recommend redistribution policy⭐⭐⭐⭐
INTERNATIONAL / GLOBAL ECONOMY POLICY SCENARIOS
G1GlobalCurrent account deficit — calculate balance, identify causes, recommend exchange rate or expenditure policy⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
G2GlobalExchange rate depreciation — calculate trade price effects, apply Marshall-Lerner, J-curve diagram⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
G3GlobalDeveloping country — recommend sustainable development strategy, evaluate aid vs trade vs FDI⭐⭐⭐
MICROECONOMIC POLICY SCENARIOS
Mi1MicroNegative externality — calculate welfare loss, recommend optimal Pigouvian tax rate from diagram⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
Mi2MicroMonopoly — calculate profit and deadweight loss, recommend regulation policy⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL

About This Resource

This IB Economics HL & SL complete exam guide covers all examination papers based on the IB Economics Subject Guide (First Assessment 2022). It covers Paper 1 (essay), Paper 2 (data response) and Paper 3 (HL policy paper), with a level toggle so students at both HL and SL can use the same resource.

All topic frequency analysis is based on the official syllabus. This resource does not reproduce or reference past paper content.

Key differences: HL vs SL

  • Paper 1: Same format. SL excludes HL-only topics (market structures, behavioural economics, Phillips curve)
  • Paper 2: Same structure and marks. SL excludes HL extension questions. Weighting differs: 40% SL vs 30% HL
  • Paper 3: HL only — SL students do not sit this paper
  • Teaching hours: 150 hrs SL vs 240 hrs HL

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