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IBDP · May 2026 Exam Prediction

IB Physics HL & SL

Topic Prediction Guide

Paper 1A (MCQ) · Paper 1B (Data) · Paper 2 (Extended Response) — subtopic frequency for IBDP May 2026. Based on May 2025 + 6 years of mapped old syllabus data.

6+
Years Data
24
Topics Mapped
5
Themes A–E
HL&SL
Both Levels
Predictions are based on historical past-paper frequency analysis (May 2021–2025) and are a study aid — not leaked or guaranteed exam content.
IB PHYSICS — PAPER 1A MCQ TOPIC FREQUENCY | May 2025 + Mapped Old Syllabus 2019–2024 | SL & HL
Free preview: Theme A · Themes B–E locked below · HL-only topics greyed in SL view
RefThemeTopic / SubtopicM19M21M22M23M24M25★Hrs SL/HLHL only?May 2026
THEME A: SPACE, TIME & MOTION — highest teaching hours, most MCQ questions per paper (free preview)
A.1Space/TimeKinematics — SUVAT equations, projectile motion, graphs of motion, relative velocity 🟡 mapped✔★9/14SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
A.2Space/TimeForces & momentum — Newton's laws, free-body diagrams, impulse, conservation of momentum, circular motion 🟡 mapped✔★★11/17SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
A.3Space/TimeWork, energy & power — work-energy theorem, conservation of energy, efficiency, power 🟡 mapped✔★7/11SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
A.4Space/TimeRigid body mechanics — torque, moment of inertia, angular momentum, rolling HL 🟣 hrs proxy✔★0/8HL⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL NEW
A.5Space/TimeSpecial relativity — Lorentz factor, time dilation, length contraction, spacetime diagrams HL 🟣 hrs proxy0/7HL⭐⭐⭐ HL NEW
RefThemeTopic / SubtopicM19M21M22M23M24M25★Hrs SL/HLHL only?May 2026
THEME B: PARTICULATE NATURE OF MATTER
B.1MatterThermal energy transfers — conduction, convection, radiation, Stefan-Boltzmann, specific heat, latent heat✔★6/9SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
B.2MatterGreenhouse effect — energy balance, albedo, climate change, black body radiation, Wien's law✔★5/8SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
B.3MatterGas laws — ideal gas behaviour, Boyle's, Charles's, combined gas law, kinetic molecular theory✔★4/7SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐
B.4MatterThermodynamics — internal energy, first/second law, entropy, Carnot engine, heat pumps HL✔★★0/9HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL CERTAIN
B.5MatterCurrent & circuits — Ohm's law, resistance, series/parallel, Kirchhoff's laws, power in circuits✔★6/9SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
THEME C: WAVE BEHAVIOUR
C.1WavesSimple harmonic motion — period, amplitude, displacement equations, energy, pendulum, mass-spring✔★5/8SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
C.2WavesWave model — transverse/longitudinal, wave speed equation, reflection, refraction, Snell's law✔★4/6SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐
C.3WavesWave phenomena — superposition, interference, diffraction, double-slit, single-slit, thin film (HL)✔★7/11SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
C.4WavesStanding waves — harmonics in strings and pipes, nodes, antinodes, boundary conditions✔★4/6SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐
C.5WavesDoppler effect — observed frequency formula, sound & EM waves, red-shift, applications3/5SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐
THEME D: FIELDS — largest HL jump; D.2 is #1 priority topic
D.1FieldsGravitational fields — field lines, g, gravitational potential, orbital mechanics, Kepler's laws, escape velocity✔★7/12SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
D.2FieldsElectric & magnetic fields — Coulomb's law, E-field, magnetic force on charges/wires, magnetic flux, transformers✔★★9/16SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
D.3FieldsMotion in fields — charged particle motion in E & B fields, electric potential, equipotential surfaces✔★5/9SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐
D.4FieldsElectromagnetic induction — Faraday's law, Lenz's law, EMF, AC generators, transformers HL✔★★0/8HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL CERTAIN
THEME E: NUCLEAR & QUANTUM PHYSICS
E.1Nuclear/QStructure of atom — nuclear model, atomic number, mass number, isotopes, binding energy, mass-energy✔★5/8SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐
E.2Nuclear/QQuantum physics — photoelectric effect, photons, Compton scattering, de Broglie, wave-particle duality, Bohr model HL✔★★0/10HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL CERTAIN
E.3Nuclear/QRadioactive decay — alpha/beta/gamma, half-life, decay equations, activity, safety✔★6/9SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
E.4Nuclear/QFission — chain reactions, critical mass, reactors, enrichment, waste3/5SL&HL⭐⭐⭐
E.5Nuclear/QFusion & stars — HR diagram, stellar evolution, luminosity, Wien's law, nuclear fusion reactions✔★5/8SL&HL⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
IB PHYSICS — PAPER 2 EXTENDED RESPONSE TOPIC FREQUENCY | May 2025 + Mapped Old Syllabus 2019–2024 | SL & HL
Extended questions test depth and synthesis across themes | HL questions demand higher command word responses | SL: HL-only rows greyed
RefThemeTopicM21M22M23M24M25★Avg MarksMay 2026
THEME A — Mechanics in Paper 2 (always large extended questions)
A.1–A.3MechanicsKinematics + Forces + Energy combined — projectile + forces + energy conservation in one extended question✔★12–18⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
A.4MechanicsRigid body mechanics — moment of inertia, torque, angular momentum in extended context HL✔★8–12⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL NEW
A.5RelativitySpecial relativity — time dilation, length contraction problems, spacetime diagrams HL6–10⭐⭐⭐ HL NEW
THEME B — Thermal & Circuits in Paper 2
B.1–B.3ThermalThermal physics — heat transfer calculations, kinetic theory, gas law problems in extended context✔★8–12⭐⭐⭐⭐
B.4ThermoThermodynamics — entropy, Carnot engine, P-V diagrams, efficiency calculations HL✔★★10–15⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL CERTAIN
B.5CircuitsCircuit analysis extended — internal resistance, V-I characteristics, power dissipation, non-ohmic components✔★10–14⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
THEME C — Waves in Paper 2 (Paper 2 loves standing waves + diffraction)
C.1SHMSHM extended — energy-displacement graphs, period derivation, resonance, damping✔★8–12⭐⭐⭐⭐
C.3+C.4WavesDiffraction + standing waves combined — double-slit fringe spacing, pipe harmonics, string modes✔★10–16⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
THEME D — Fields in Paper 2 (electromagnetism = highest marks)
D.1GravityGravitational fields extended — orbital speed, escape velocity, gravitational potential calculations, satellites✔★10–14⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
D.2EM FieldsElectromagnetism extended — magnetic force calculations, particle in field, transformer problems✔★★12–18⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
D.4InductionElectromagnetic induction — EMF calculations, Lenz's law application, AC generator, RMS values HL✔★★12–18⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL CERTAIN
THEME E — Nuclear & Quantum in Paper 2
E.3RadioactiveRadioactive decay extended — decay series, half-life calculations, activity, uses in medicine✔★8–12⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
E.5StarsStars & fusion — HR diagram classification, luminosity/temperature, stellar evolution, nuclear fusion energy✔★10–14⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
E.2QuantumQuantum physics extended — photoelectric calculation, Compton effect derivation, de Broglie wavelength HL✔★★10–16⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL CERTAIN

About the new IB Physics syllabus

IB Physics was completely restructured for first assessment in May 2025. The old 12-topic syllabus with optional Paper 3 topics (Astrophysics, Relativity, Engineering Physics, Imaging) has been replaced by 5 themes covering 24 compulsory topics. HL students now study all of this plus 5 HL-only subtopics, including Rigid Body Mechanics, Special Relativity, Thermodynamics, Electromagnetic Induction and Quantum Physics.

Also studying Biology or Chemistry? IB Biology prediction → | IB Chemistry prediction →

Key differences — HL vs SL

  • Paper 1: SL = 25 MCQ + 20 data marks / HL = 40 MCQ + 20 data marks
  • Paper 2: SL = 75 marks / HL = 90 marks (deeper and longer)
  • HL-only topics: A4 Rigid body · A5 Relativity · B4 Thermodynamics · D4 Induction · E2 Quantum
  • Teaching hours: 150 SL vs 240 HL
  • May 2025 finding: HL-only topics (especially B4, D4, E2) appeared very heavily — do not underestimate them

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